MQL Cohort Performance | Q1 2026 vs Prior Quarters
Pearlfinders · Marketing Analytics
MQL Cohort Performance: Q1 2026 vs Prior Quarters
All opportunities created from MQLs, grouped by the quarter the MQL arrived, taken from your campaign tagging in Primary Campaign Source. Fiscal quarters: Q1 Apr–Jun, Q2 Jul–Sep, Q3 Oct–Dec, Q4 Jan–Mar. 1,247 MQLs and 506 opportunities across six quarterly cohorts.
Read this first: the Q1 2026 cohort (Apr–Jun 2026) ended barely two weeks ago and is not yet mature — 32 of its 86 opportunities (37%) are still open, worth £196k. Q1 2025 is fully closed. Every comparison below separates what has already happened from what is still in play.
MQLs · Q1 2026
175
−19% vs Q1 2025 (216) · −51% vs Q4
Opps created · Q1 2026
86
−22% vs Q1 2025 (110)
Closed won so far
3
Q1 2025 finished on 41
Won revenue so far
£17.3k
−93% vs Q1 2025 (£231k)
Still open
32
£196k pipeline in play
Win rate on closed deals
5.6%
51 already lost · Q1 2025: 37.6%
Avg won deal size
£5,750
Stable across all quarters (£5.5–5.8k)
Head-to-head: Q1 2026 vs…
Metric
Q1 2025 (Apr–Jun 25)
Q1 2026 (Apr–Jun 26)
Difference
Q1 2026 figures marked * are provisional — 32 deals (£196k) still open. Comparison quarters are fully or almost fully closed.
Full funnel: MQLs → Opportunities → Wins
Funnel volume per quarter
Every MQL in the period, including those that never became opportunities. Q4 2025's MQL surge (+64%) did not translate into wins; Q1 2026's MQL volume halved vs Q4.
Funnel efficiency per quarter
MQL → opp conversion has recovered in Q1 2026 to near its Q1 2025 peak. The collapse is entirely in the final step: opp → win.
Volume & outcomes by cohort
Opportunities created per MQL quarter, by outcome
Q4 2025 produced the most opportunities on record (130) but the second-worst win rate — volume and quality have moved in opposite directions.
Win rate on closed deals
Won ÷ (won + lost). Q1 2026 shown as provisional — it can only improve as open deals close, but 51 losses are already banked.
Closed won revenue & open pipeline
Deal size is flat, so the revenue gap is entirely a conversion problem, not a pricing one.
Where the mix changed
Sector mix of each cohort
Marketing has grown to 50% of the Q1 2026 cohort. Charity & Arts — the best-converting sector in Q1 2025 — has shrunk to 22%.
Sector win rates on closed deals
Q1 2025's result was built on Charity & Arts converting at 52.6%. In Q1 2026 the same sector is 0 for 10 so far.
Sector
Q1 25 Apr–Jun 25
Q2 25 Jul–Sep 25
Q3 25 Oct–Dec 25
Q4 25 Jan–Mar 26
Q1 26* Apr–Jun 26
Where Q1 2026 can realistically land
Applying historical win rates to the 32 open deals (at the £5,750 average deal size), on top of the 3 wins already banked.
Scenario
Extra wins
Total wins
Est. cohort revenue
vs Q1 2025 (£231k)
Open deals convert like Q4 2025 (16.5%)
5
8
£46k
−80%
Open deals convert at 2025 average (24.5%)
8
11
£63k
−73%
Open deals convert like Q1 2025 (37.6%)
12
15
£86k
−63%
Every open deal closes won (ceiling)
32
35
£201k
−13%
Conclusions
01
The decline is structural, not seasonal
Closed-deal win rate has fallen every single quarter: 37.6% → 22.9% → 20.9% → 16.5%. Q1 2026 sits at 5.6% with 51 losses already banked. Even the best-case scenario leaves it well below every 2025 quarter.
02
The funnel breaks at the last step, not the first
Q1 2026's MQL → opp conversion (49.1%) is back at near-record levels — the MQLs coming in are qualifying well. But MQL → win has fallen 19.0% → 1.7%*. The leak is definitively opp → close, not lead quality at the top.
03
Q4's MQL surge bought volume, not revenue
Q4 2025 generated 355 MQLs (+64% vs any other quarter) but converted them to wins at 5.6% — the worst mature rate. More MQLs of the same kind won't fix Q1 2026; 175 well-qualifying MQLs are already producing opps at the best rate since Apr 2025.
04
Charity & Arts carried Q1 2025 and has gone missing
Q1 2025's outperformance was largely one sector: Charity & Arts won 20 of 38 closed deals (52.6%). In Q1 2026 it's a smaller share of the cohort and 0 wins from 10 closed. Recovering this sector is the single biggest lever.
05
Marketing is absorbing budget it can't convert
Marketing is now 50% of the cohort (43 opps) but has converted 1 of 30 closed deals (3.3%). The mix has shifted towards the sector converting worst.
06
Intent looks higher upstream, so the leak is downstream
Demo Requests became the #1 lead source in Q1 2026 (29 opps, vs 24 in Q1 2025) — a stronger intent signal — yet conversion collapsed. That points at lead quality within source, sales-stage conversion, or competitive/pricing pressure rather than a weaker top of funnel.
07
£196k is still on the table
21 of the 32 open deals are at Demo Done or later (12 at proposal, 9 at final offer, 4 verbal). Closing these well is worth more than any new campaign this quarter — the gap between the 16.5% and 37.6% scenarios is £40k.
